Economist's formula predicts Netherlands to win 2026 World Cup
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Surprisingly, he believes the Netherlands will lift the trophy for the first time in their history.
The tournament, which will be hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, concludes with the final in New York on 19 July.
According to Klement's simulations, Ronald Koeman's side will overcome some of the strongest teams in world football on their way to glory.
Key takeaways
- Joachim Klement's model backs the Netherlands to win the 2026 World Cup.
- The Dutch are predicted to beat France, Spain and Portugal on the way.
- Klement's formula has previously predicted the last three World Cup winners.
A difficult route to the final
Klement's model projects a challenging path for the Dutch. The Netherlands are predicted to face France in the quarter-finals, with the model giving them just enough of an edge to progress.A potential semi-final clash against tournament favourites Spain would then follow, where another upset could see the Oranje reach the final.
In the championship match, the Netherlands are forecast to meet Portugal, potentially giving Cristiano Ronaldo one final opportunity to win football's biggest prize.
However, Klement's model suggests Portugal will fall short, with the Dutch emerging as world champions.
Speaking to Dutch broadcaster SBS, Klement admitted the result surprised even him.
I was a bit surprised when it came out of my model and the simulations that the Netherlands would win.
Particularly given that the simulation showed that the Netherlands has a very, very difficult path to the final.
Why the model favors the Netherlands
Whilst France and Spain are widely regarded as stronger teams on paper, Klement believes knockout football is heavily influenced by factors beyond pure quality.France would be more likely to win against the Netherlands because it's one of the best teams in the world right now.According to Klement, confidence gained from defeating elite opponents could become a decisive factor if the Dutch reach the latter stages of the competition.
But on any given day, luck plays an important role and, in fact, about 50% of the outcome is given by luck.
If the Netherlands makes it to the semi-finals, it will be a situation where it already has a lot of confidence that it can beat anyone.
I think it will literally be 50/50 if you beat Spain or not, and if you beat Spain, then the path is clear to the World Cup.
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An unlikely contender
The prediction stands out because the Netherlands are not among the leading favourites with most bookmakers.They are generally viewed as outsiders compared with nations such as Spain, France, England, Argentina and Portugal.
Yet football history shows the Dutch have repeatedly come close to World Cup glory.
The Netherlands reached the final in 1974, only to lose 2-1 to West Germany.
Four years later, they returned to the final but were beaten by Argentina after extra time.
Their most recent heartbreak came in 2010, when Andrés Iniesta's extra-time winner secured the trophy for Spain.
Despite producing legendary players across multiple generations, the Netherlands remain one of football's most successful nations never to have won the World Cup.
Could 2026 finally be their year?
If Klement's prediction proves accurate, the Netherlands would end decades of frustration and finally secure the most coveted trophy in international football.Such a triumph would further cement the legacy of captain Virgil van Dijk and a talented Dutch squad seeking to make history on the sport's biggest stage.
For now, the prediction remains just a prediction.
But given Klement's impressive track record over the last three World Cups, football fans around the world will be paying close attention to see whether his model delivers another remarkable result.
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