How far will England get in 2018 World Cup? | inside World Soccer

How far will England get in 2018 World Cup?

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

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The start of the 2018 World Cup is now imminent, so we checked sports data company Gracenote to predict how far will England get in Russia.

The World Cup gets underway on Thursday, as hosts Russia face Saudi Arabia, in what is not exactly a curtain-raiser for the ages.

Thirty-two teams will do battle for just over a month, with holders Germany looking to keep hold of their title, and Brazil, Spain and France their biggest threat.

The Three Lions will again do their best not to bow out in a blaze of misery, and while the players may lack experience and pedigree, it is also a squad which represents a new-look England, with added hope for the future.

However, according to sports data company Gracenote, Gareth Southgate's men have only a four percent chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July.

England face Tunisia, Panama and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71 percent chance of reaching the knock-out rounds. And that's much better than playing online roulette in a casino.

If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41 percent chance of progressing.

But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals - where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil - with an 18 percent chance of reaching the semi-final and nine percent chance of making the final.

Meanwhile, five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21 percent chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina.

That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.

Last year, Gracenote ran the same algorithm before the start of the Champions League, correctly predicting that Real Madrid had the best chance of winning at 30 percent.

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